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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Beryl) , Major: 320 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 320 (Idalia) Major: 320 (Idalia)
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#1186889 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 01.Jul.2024)

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl appears to be in the late stages of an eyewall replacement
cycle, with the Barbados radar showing a larger eye becoming
dominant with only a small portion of the inner eye left over.
While the earlier aircraft data suggested the system could have
weakened below 105 kt, the recent re-organization seen on radar and
satellite imagery support leaving the initial wind speed at 105 kt.
A pair of aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA should be in the
hurricane later this morning for another assessment of the
intensity and structure. It should be noted that while Beryl`s
maximum winds have slightly decreased overnight, the area of
stronger winds has grown, so the hazards of the hurricane are likely
to affect a larger area.

The hurricane continues to move at 280/17 kt, but there are signs
that a west-northwestward turn is beginning. A faster
west-northwestward motion should occur through mid-week due to Beryl
encountering stronger low-level flow. The hurricane is forecast to
turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable
change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is
showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl
considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big
change from earlier so I don`t want to bite off on that evolution
just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the
model consensus for continuity purposes.

Beryl has a chance today to re-strengthen now that the eyewall cycle
is close to completion and the vertical wind shear remains low.
Little change was made to the previous forecast in the short term.
However, a marked increase in westerly shear is coming in a couple
of days as the low-level flow increases and the upper-level flow
weakens. This pattern is likely to cause the hurricane to weaken
over the central Caribbean, although the guidance is in poor
agreement on how much, with the latest cycle showing a weaker Beryl
in the western Caribbean. There is quite a disparity in the
upper-level pattern shown by the ECMWF and GFS in the long range as
Beryl enters the vicinity, so the new forecast is only slightly
adjusts downward for 48 hours and beyond, remaining above the model
consensus. It is too soon to discuss what could happen with Beryl
if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands this morning. This
is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should
listen to local government and emergency management officials for
any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-
threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl
passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk
of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning later this morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands today.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will
likely be required this week.


INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.6N 62.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.9N 66.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 70.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.8N 77.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 17.4N 81.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 18.4N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

Forecaster Blake