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#1186930 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 01.Jul.2024)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, the Cayman
Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should
closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 61.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). The eyewall of
Beryl is moving across the southern Windward Islands. This is
an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Take action
now to protect your life! Residents in Grenada, the Grenadine
Islands, and Carriacou Island should not leave their shelter as
winds will rapidly increase within the eyewall of Beryl. Remain in
place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and
do not venture out in the eye of the storm.

Beryl is expected to move quickly westward to west-northwestward
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl is currently moving across the southern Windward Islands and
will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late
today through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during
the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in
the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A weather station in Crown Point, Tobago recently reported
sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
There have been multiple reports of downed trees, flooded streets,
power outages and storm surge flooding in the Grenandines, Grenada,
Barbados, and Tobago.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 956 mb
(28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning
area. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the
core of Beryl is moving through portions of the southern Windward
Islands, including Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine
Islands.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring or imminent in the tropical
storm warning area.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this
afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in
the Grenadines, Tobago, and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash
flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart