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| #1186953 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 01.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS BERYL ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 62.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the island. The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Tobago and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d`Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). The center of Beryl will move away from the southern Windward Islands tonight and pass quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning area. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl is moving through portions of the southern Windward Islands, including Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area on Jamaica by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the Grenadines, Tobago, and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
