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| #1187074 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 AM 02.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 67.9W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d`Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 67.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is forecast to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of days and turn westward by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42059 to the north of the eye recently reported sustained winds of 72 mph (115 km/h) and a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola later today. Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl should impact mainly southern portions of Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
