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| #1187227 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 03.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb. However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb. These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is held at 125 kt. The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory. While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast, followed by weakening after landfall. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind gusts. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today. 3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |
