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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Beryl) , Major: 320 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 320 (Idalia) Major: 320 (Idalia)
 
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#1187304 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 03.Jul.2024)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

The core of Beryl has now passed through Jamaica and is approaching
the Cayman Islands. Satellite images indicate that the eye has
become cloud filled, and reports from both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the eyewall is open on the southwest
side. Despite the degraded structure, a blend of the NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance data indicates that Beryl is still an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane with an initial intensity of 115 kt.
The crews on board also reported that there was significant
turbulence in the northern eyewall. NOAA`s P-3 Tail Doppler Radar
data does suggest that there is some vertical tilt to the vortex,
likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear.

The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track,
and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge
centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more
westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the
major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and
across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The
ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to
slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a
trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly
clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced
steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of
high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the
time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly,
confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long
range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the
previous one and very near the various consensus aids.

Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly
shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold
steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These
less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air
should cause weakening, but Beryl is still expected to be a
powerful hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan. The
interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan should cause rapid
weakening, but gradual re-intensification is expected when Beryl
moves over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica for a few
more hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica overnight.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of
Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause
life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen