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| #1187304 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 03.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 The core of Beryl has now passed through Jamaica and is approaching the Cayman Islands. Satellite images indicate that the eye has become cloud filled, and reports from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the eyewall is open on the southwest side. Despite the degraded structure, a blend of the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that Beryl is still an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with an initial intensity of 115 kt. The crews on board also reported that there was significant turbulence in the northern eyewall. NOAA`s P-3 Tail Doppler Radar data does suggest that there is some vertical tilt to the vortex, likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly, confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the previous one and very near the various consensus aids. Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air should cause weakening, but Beryl is still expected to be a powerful hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan. The interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan should cause rapid weakening, but gradual re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica for a few more hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind gusts. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica overnight. 3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions of that area. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen |
