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#1187305 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 03.Jul.2024)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BERYL PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Progreso to Campeche and issued a
Hurricane Warning for Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or
two, taking the core of Beryl just south of Cayman Islands overnight
and over the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday.
Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Friday night and turn northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, however, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across the extreme
southwestern portions of Jamaica and in the mountainous areas for
another few hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
elsewhere on the island.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
overnight, with tropical storm conditions beginning.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as
much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
Wednesday evening. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands through Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula
into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late Thursday
through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of Central America on Thursday and to eastern Mexico and
much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen