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| #1187319 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 04.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 80.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located by Grand Cayman and Air Force Hurricane Hunter radar imagery near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 80.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two, however, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes by the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands within the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions starting soon. Hurricane conditions are diminishing across Jamaica. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula late today or early Friday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late today or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge should be gradually subsiding in Jamaica. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through this morning. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands through today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late today through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
