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| #1187379 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 04.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Beryl continues to weaken due to the effects of westerly shear. Radar data from the Cayman Islands shows that the eyewall is open to the south and that there is very little precipitation occurring in the southwestern semicircle. This matches the asymmetric cloud pattern seen in satellite imagery. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters support surface winds of 90-100 kt, and that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb. Based on this, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 kt. The initial wind radii have be modified downward based on the aircraft data. The initial motion is 285/16. There is little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or two, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just before 24 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just after 36 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast near 96 h. While the guidance has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles. Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is similar to, but a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the consensus models. Water vapor imagery continues to show a upper-level trough moving west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with westerly flow on the south side of this system helping to impart moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the shear could decrease some during the next 24 h, it is unlikely to decrease enough to stop Beryl from steadily weakening until landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Beryl should weaken more after landfall. There is uncertainty in how much shear the cyclone may encounter over the Gulf of Mexico, but the guidance shows slow intensification during that time. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast that brings the system back to hurricane strength right at landfall on the western Gulf coast. Key Messages: 1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of flooding are occurring in the Cayman Islands where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. 4. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.5N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.1N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0000Z 23.0N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 97.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 28.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |
