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Nothing in the Atlantic currently for the next week or two.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Beryl) , Major: 320 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 320 (Idalia) Major: 320 (Idalia)
 
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#1187389 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 04.Jul.2024)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued
all warnings for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas and northeastern
Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 83.4 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking
the core of Beryl away from the Cayman Islands through this
afternoon and then over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is
expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Beryl is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during
the next day or two, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane
until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area along portions of the coast of Belize by tonight or early
Friday.

Winds may gust to tropical-storm force in squalls in the Cayman
Islands during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to
5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches over the Cayman Islands today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with
localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and
much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven