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Nothing in the Atlantic currently for the next week or two.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Beryl) , Major: 320 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 320 (Idalia) Major: 320 (Idalia)
 
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#1187468 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 05.Jul.2024)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...CONDITIONS TO SOON DETERIORATE FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 86.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
will likely be issued for that region later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 86.2 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the
center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula later this
morning. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico tonight and move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Rapid weakening is expected while Beryl crosses the
Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is expected when
Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind
of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure of 971 mb (28.67 inches) is based on
data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength shortly, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the
Yucatan Gulf coast later today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area along portions of the coast of Belize this morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to
6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, through today
across the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated across the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico
and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin