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| #1187491 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 05.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Beryl is nearing landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. After unexpectedly intensifying some last night against continued shear, Beryl has plateaued or filled a bit. The last few fixes from the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission indicated the pressure rose 9 mb while the peak 700-mb wind in the final NE leg out of Beryl were down to 102 kt with lower SFMR values. In addition, the aircraft was no longer reporting an eyewall and the presentation of Beryl`s inner core from radar out of Cancun, Mexico has become more degraded. On satellite, the hurricane has also become more amorphous, with a lack of an eye signature on infrared imagery, and evidence of southerly shear continuing to undercut its outflow. The initial intensity this advisory was adjusted to 95 kt, which is still higher than the satellite intensity estimates, out of respect of the earlier recon data. The hurricane appears to now be moving more west-northwestward this morning, estimated at 285/13 kt. Beryl should maintain this west-northwest heading as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for many days now will become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a long-wave trough located over the Central U.S. In addition, an upper-level low seen retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico could also impart more poleward steering in the western Gulf of Mexico. How sharply Beryl turns poleward from 36-72 h will likely depend on the storm`s vertical depth, with a more vertically deep system more likely to feel the ridge weakness and upper-level flow. In fact, that scenario has been highlighted by the last few cycles of the ECMWF ensembles which show stronger solutions on the north side of the track envelope. The overall guidance this cycle has also made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier, and the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in that direction may be necessary later today. The intensity forecast for the next 24 hours is straightforward, as the small core of Beryl should quickly weaken over the Yucatan after it moves inland, likely into a tropical storm before it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is after this period where the intensity forecast becomes more tricky. It will likely take a bit of time for Beryl`s convective structure to recover in the Gulf of Mexico, and initially there will still be some residual southerly shear. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows shear dropping under 10 kt after 48 hours, while the storm traverses 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Such an environment should favor strengthening, and the raw model output from the GFS and ECMWF suggests significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Somewhat surprisingly, the hurricane-regional models are more subdued and suggest less intensification this cycle, but these models have been oscillating between stronger and weaker solutions. The latest NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more intensification than the prior advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but more in line with the expected favorable environment as Beryl approaches landfall. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the largest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are beginning to occur across the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Residents there should shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions today. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today. 3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin |
