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| #1187528 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 05.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...BERYL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 88.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula south of Punta Allen. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Allen to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to cross the northern Yucatan Peninsula today. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected as Beryl moves farther inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula and will continue for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere in the hurricane warning area. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the Yucatan Gulf coast later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated. Heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts is expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas by Sunday into the coming week. This rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
