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| #1187566 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 05.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST... ...CENTER OF BERYL EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 89.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent. A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent. The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent * The northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued for portions of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 89.2 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwestward motion is expected through tonight, with the center forecast to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few hours. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, with the center of Beryl expected to approach the western Gulf coast late Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next few hours as Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Re-intensification is expected once the center moves back over the Gulf of Mexico, and Beryl is forecast to regain hurricane status on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and should spread westward along the Gulf coast of the peninsula for the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the western Gulf coast by late Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX...3-5 ft Corpus Christi Bay...3-5 ft Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the west and north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. This rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
