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| #1187617 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 05.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb. Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S. The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction, which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point. Since Beryl`s structure has degraded significantly from its passage over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show significant decreases in the system`s minimum pressure over the next couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one. Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of next week. 3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.7N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.9N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 25.0N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 27.6N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 29.2N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 31.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 33.9N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
