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#1187618 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 05.Jul.2024)
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
...BERYL NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO..
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula.
The Hurricane Watch in Texas has been extended eastward to San Luis
Pass.
The Storm Surge Watch in Texas has been extended eastward to High
Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to San Luis Pass
* The northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to High Island
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be issued for portions of this area
on Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 90.2 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A turn
to the northwest is expected later on Saturday, with the center of
Beryl expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday.
Steady strengthening seems likely later in the weekend, and Beryl
is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. An observations in Isla Perez has recently
reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph
(92 km/h).
The minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches) estimated from
Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the Gulf coast of northeastern Mexico and Texas by early
Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Sunday night.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Baffin Bay, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...3-5 ft
Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the west and
north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall
is likely to produce areas of flash and urban flooding.
Through early Saturday morning, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10
inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of
flash flooding anticipated.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are
expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the
U.S. by early Saturday. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen |
