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| #1187727 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 06.Jul.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS BERYL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 92.7W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River * The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward to High Island A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for a portion of the Texas coast this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 92.7 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday into Monday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. However, strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Texas by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in Texas and northeastern Mexico late Sunday or Sunday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...3-5 ft Corpus Christi Bay...3-5 ft Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX...2-4 ft San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. This rainfall will likely produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
