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| #1187801 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 06.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Beryl has not changed much over the past few hours. Satellite images still show that the storm has a compact central dense overcast pattern, and radar and dropsonde data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the circulation remains tilted to the northwest with height. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a slight drop in minimum pressure to 993 mb, but the flight-level wind data suggest that the initial intensity is still around 50 kt. The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A turn to the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected as the system moves toward a trough over the south-central U.S., taking the core of Beryl to the middle Texas coast early Monday morning. The shifts in the models have been decreasing, and the new NHC track forecast is just a touch to the right of the previous one through landfall. After landfall, a faster motion to the north and northeast is predicted. Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models show the moisture increasing near the core. In fact, the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt) just prior to Beryl reaching the coast. These conditions combined with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable strengthening just prior to landfall. In fact, the hurricane regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h predictions. It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36 hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation late Sunday night and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders. 2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday night and Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to Sargent. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions begin late Sunday. 3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. River flooding is also possible. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 24.7N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.7N 95.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 27.1N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 28.8N 96.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 30.7N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 32.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 34.5N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 37.8N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 41.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
