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#1187848 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 07.Jul.2024)
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024
The convective structure of Beryl continues to wax and wane, with
some deep convection now attempting to redevelop on the western and
southern side of the circulation, as evident on both GOES-16
satellite and radar imagery out of Brownsville, TX. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft that departed the storm a few hours ago
provided a last fix with 700-mb winds of 56 kt in the northeastern
quadrant and a pressure of 995 mb. Since there has not been much
meaningful change to the tropical storm`s structure since that time,
the initial intensity will remain 50 kt for this advisory.
Beryl continues to move northwestward, though a little more poleward
than before estimated at 320/10 kt. Over the next 24 hours, Beryl is
expected to turn north-northwestward or even northward before the
system makes landfall along the Texas coast in a little more than 24
hours. The track guidance this cycle has made a shift eastward and
is a little faster, and the NHC track forecast has also shifted in
that direction, in between the latest TCVN and HCCA consensus aids.
It is worth noting that some guidance, such as the GFS and HAFS-A
are even further east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance
shows the system accelerating farther northeastward, ultimately
phasing with a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley while it
transitions into a post-tropical cyclone.
Even though Beryl has not intensified over the past day, vertical
wind shear is in the process of decreasing below 10 kt over the
storm this morning, which should provide it with a 24-30 hour window
to start intensifying as it mixes out the dry air that prevented
persistent organized convection around the core. The fastest rate of
intensification is likely to occur right before landfall, and the
latest intensity forecast still shows Beryl becoming a hurricane
again in 24 hours, with some additional intensification possible
right up until landfall. This forecast is consistent with the
hurricane-regional models that also show the most significant
intensification right before Beryl makes landfall. There also
remains some potential that Beryl could rapidly intensify before
landfall, with the latest SHIPS-RII suggesting this possibility is
2-3 times above climatology.
It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 24-36
hours is about 30-50 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information. Based on changes to the
forecast track this advisory, Hurricane Warnings have been extended
northward up to San Luis Pass.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
late tonight and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north
entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island,
including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.
Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders.
2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast late tonight and Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is now in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass.
Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm
conditions begin late today.
3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night. River
flooding is also expected.
4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 25.3N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 28.1N 96.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 30.2N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 32.5N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 34.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 36.7N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 40.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/0600Z 43.5N 83.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Papin |
