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| #1188043 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 08.Jul.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 The strengthening forecast by the regional hurricane models began in earnest just after the last advisory was issued. Doppler radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Beryl regained hurricane strength near 04Z, and intensification continued until the just-occurred landfall of the 28 n mi wide eye on the Texas coast. The landfall central pressure was near 979 mb, and the maximum winds were near 70 kt. The initial motion is 355/10. Beryl should move northward for the next 12 h through a break in the subtropical ridge, with the center moving through eastern Texas. After that, the cyclone should turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed, with the cyclone accelerating across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Now that Beryl is moving inland, it should quickly weaken, with the system becoming a tropical storm in the next few hours and a tropical depression in a little over 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should merge with a frontal system over Mississippi Valley and become an extratropical low before it dissipates. Key Messages: 1. There is a continuing danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Beryl is bringing damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the Texas coast this morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Tuesday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 28.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON COAST 12H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 32.7N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 35.0N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1800Z 40.0N 85.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0600Z 42.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
