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#1188117 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 08.Jul.2024)
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface
data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a
fairly well-defined eye present. The initial wind speed is set to
60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface
observations. While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are
still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and
these are detailed in the Key Messages below.
Beryl should remain a potent wind gust producer for the next few
hours with recent observations in the eastern eyewall reporting
wind gusts above 70 kt. As more of the circulation moves inland
later today, Beryl is forecast to steadily weaken and become a
tropical depression tonight or overnight. No change to the
intensity forecast has been made.
The storm is moving north-northeastward, now a little faster at 11
kt. Beryl should turn northeastward and accelerate across the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple
of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast
track is similar to the previous forecast, a bit to the east.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through
this afternoon along the coast of Texas from Port OConnor to Sabine
Pass, including the eastern portion of Matagorda Bay and Galveston
Bay.
2. Damaging wind gusts near the core of Beryl will continue to
spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area, including
the Houston metro area, for the next several hours.
3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into
tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also
expected.
4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf coasts.
Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards
and local officials before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 29.8N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 33.9N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0000Z 36.7N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 10/1200Z 39.7N 86.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 42.2N 82.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 44.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake |
