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#1188200 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 08.Jul.2024)
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Beryl continues to weaken. Satellite images show that the
low- and mid-level centers have decoupled, and NWS Doppler wind
velocities are decreasing. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt,
in accordance with radar data and surface observations. Beryl
should gradually lose strength and is expected to become a tropical
depression tonight or overnight. The intensity forecast is about
the same as the last one, except a little stronger in the
post-tropical phase near the Great Lakes due to recent global model
wind forecasts of some extratropical energy keeping the winds more
stead at long range.
The storm is moving north-northeastward, faster at 14 kt. Beryl
should turn northeastward overnight and accelerate across the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple
of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast
track is similar to the previous forecast, though a bit to the
west. It is possible this could be a little fast if recent model
solutions of more phasing with a mid-latitude trough occurs.
Key Messages:
1. Water levels will remain elevated along Galveston Bay and along
the coast of Texas from Port OConnor to Sabine Pass.
2. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected through
tonight across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and across eastern
Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected.
3. Use caution after Beryl passes as deadly hazards remain
including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators
are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions
through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf
coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of
lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 31.3N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 33.2N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 36.2N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/0600Z 39.1N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 41.6N 83.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 43.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 45.0N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake |
