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Nothing in the Atlantic currently for the next week or two.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Beryl) , Major: 320 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 320 (Idalia) Major: 320 (Idalia)
 
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#1188201 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 08.Jul.2024)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...BERYL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND TORNADOES OVER EASTERN
TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN AFTER THE STORM INCLUDING DOWNED POWER
LINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 95.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TYLER TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Port O`Connor
to San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 95.1 West. Beryl is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl
will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Beryl is
expected to become a tropical depression tonight or overnight and a
post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km),
primarily southeast of the center. A National Ocean Service station
near Sabine Pass (TXPT2) recently reported sustained winds of 43
mph (69 km/h), and a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will
spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky,
southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: An additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with localized
amounts of 12 inches is expected across portions of eastern Texas
through tonight. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as
minor to isolated major river flooding is expected.

Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, is
expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and
southern Missouri through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and
urban flooding is possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the northern and western Gulf Coast of the U.S.
during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical
storm warning area for the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake