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New NHC Advisory with Milton at 180 MPH 905mb. Recon heading back in and could get even stronger still. Tampa may get 10-15' of surge on current forecast track. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
41.7N 38.4W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Ne at 29 mph
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17.4N 42.1W
Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 988mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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21.7N 91.3W
Wind: 175MPH
Pres: 911mb
Moving:
E at 9 mph
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#1191586 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 02.Aug.2024)
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days
is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to
the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds
are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface
observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development
once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are
initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves
into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude
trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature
into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near
the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that
time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and
move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with
this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel
to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast
of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large
changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest
impacts.

Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the
system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it
moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite
favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm
sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is
expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast
are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how
long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken
as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the
Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday
morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita
Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along
the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday
night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of
Florida over the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven