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#1191634 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 02.Aug.2024) TCDAT4
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024
Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over
central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However,
the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is
not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a
tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical
cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently
investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of
its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the
maximum winds remain near 25 kt.
The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous
advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A
turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This
should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the
Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday,
followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night
and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern
Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of
the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track
guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of
issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward,
and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the
center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being
almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and
the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could
cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas
receive the strongest impacts.
There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the
previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is
over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression
soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the
Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear
and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady
strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the
intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of
Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is
likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification
likely over the Atlantic after 72 h.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this
weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also
be possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape
Sable to Boca Grande. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of
Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later tonight and on Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 22.4N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 03/1800Z 24.2N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 04/0600Z 26.1N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 28.1N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 29.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 30.9N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 32.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 07/1800Z 34.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven |