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#1191713 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 03.Aug.2024) TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 80.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM SSE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Aucilla River to Yankeetown,
Florida.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the Suwannee
River to Aucilla River, Florida.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
west coast of the Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to south of
Yankeetown, including Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Aucilla River to
the Ochlockonee River.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Channel 5
Bridge has been discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Florida
peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge has been
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Aucilla River to Yankeetown
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown
to East Cape Sable
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this
area later today.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 80.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a
northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion
Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the
Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the
warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle
by late Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Chassahowitzka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 ft
Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15
inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall may
result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding,
with isolated river flooding possible.
For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher
amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated
to scattered areas of flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along
the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart |