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#1191714 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Aug.2024) TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024
Small bursts of deep convection have continued near the estimated
center of the depression, with some skeletal convective bands over
the outer portions of the circulation. Earlier scatterometer data
revealed the strongest winds were occurring to the south and east of
the center, offshore of the southern coast of Cuba. The overall
organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little overnight,
and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the earlier
scatterometer winds and recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The estimated motion of the depression is still west-northwestward
at about 14 kt. The influence of an upper-level trough over the
eastern United States should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward
and then northward this weekend as it moves toward a break in the
subtropical ridge. This motion will bring the system across western
Cuba this morning, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and
toward the Florida Big Bend region on Sunday and Sunday night. There
is reasonably good confidence in this portion of the track forecast,
and only slight westward adjustments were made to the NHC prediction
based on the latest track consensus aids. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia.
Thereafter, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain as it is
unclear whether the system will accelerate northeastward ahead
of an upper trough (GFS) or get left behind and meander over
the southeastern U.S. or near the coast (ECMWF).
After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable
for intensification. The latest NHC forecast shows the cyclone
becoming a tropical storm by tonight, with additional strengthening
expected while it moves across deep warm waters in a weak shear
environment. The regional hurricane models and statistical guidance
continue to indicate some potential for the system to reach
hurricane strength before it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend
region. Although the latest NHC forecast does not explicitly show
the cyclone becoming a hurricane, note that additional strengthening
could occur between 48-60 h. Weakening is forecast after landfall
while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond
day 3, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain and highly
dependent on whether the center stays inland or emerges off the
Atlantic coast.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river
flooding will also be possible.
2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central
Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are
possible late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
farther south along Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay
area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect.
3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 22.0N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 29.1N 83.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 30.4N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0600Z 33.0N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart |