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| #1191795 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 03.Aug.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 83.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * The Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 83.2 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a northward turn on Sunday and a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday night or Monday. Surface observations from the Florida Keys and ships in the Straits of Florida indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected as Debby crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive during the day on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas this evening and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday or Monday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL ...4-7 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
