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| #1191868 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 04.Aug.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 83.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 83.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. The center is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Wind gusts of 45 mph (72 km/h) and 41 mph (67 km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key and the Key West Naval Air Station in the Florida Keys, respectively. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next several hours, and in the Florida Panhandle on Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown to Suwannee River, FL ...4-7 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft Aripeka to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum rainfall totals towards 30 inches, across portions of northern Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Sunday morning. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the southern and western parts of the Florida Peninsula overnight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida later today. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
