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New NHC Advisory with Milton at 180 MPH 905mb. Recon heading back in and could get even stronger still. Tampa may get 10-15' of surge on current forecast track. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
41.7N 38.4W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Ne at 29 mph
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18.4N 43.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 988mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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21.8N 89.9W
Wind: 165MPH
Pres: 914mb
Moving:
E at 9 mph
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#1191946 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 04.Aug.2024)
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby
continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite
imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed
with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and
WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form.
The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a
significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft.

The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial
motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or
so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the
northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on
Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are
likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves
eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward
speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in
the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center
over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge
builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the
Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame.

Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical
shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant
strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone
forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the
high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to
become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after
it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the
coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below
tropical storm strength through 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding
impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and
the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially
historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina
through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and
Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the
southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have
been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch