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| #1192114 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 05.Aug.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 83.8W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning on the east coast of Florida has been extended southward to St. Augustine. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia late today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Weakening is expected after Debby moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Hurricane Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina later today. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
