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| #1192193 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 05.Aug.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY JUST INLAND IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.4W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch from the middle of Longboat Key to Englewood Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Debby moves over land today and tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was reported at Madison County High School within the last hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. Since Debby is inland and its Radar appearance has degraded, NHC has stopped issuing hourly position updates. $$ Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky |
