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| #1192245 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 05.Aug.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 83.1W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF LIVE OAK FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Aucilla River westward to Ochlockonee River is discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning from the middle of Longboat Key to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay, Florida, is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Aripeka, Florida is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka to the Aucilla River * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Indian Pass to Aripeka * St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through late Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast for the next few hours, and have begun along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
