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#1192245 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 05.Aug.2024) TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
...DEBBY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 83.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF LIVE OAK FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning from Aucilla River westward to Ochlockonee
River is discontinued.
The Storm Surge Warning from the middle of Longboat Key to Aripeka,
including Tampa Bay, Florida, is discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Aripeka, Florida is
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka to the Aucilla River
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Indian Pass to Aripeka
* St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual
decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east is expected
later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move
across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore
of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through late
Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast for the
next few hours, and have begun along portions of the tropical storm
warning area along the Atlantic coast. Tropical storm conditions
are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the
tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft
Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of
central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North
Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with
significant river flooding expected.
Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South
Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall,
with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday
morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in
areas of catastrophic flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread
northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect
the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the
middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch |