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| #1192318 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 05.Aug.2024) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 The center of Debby has continued to move northeastward over southeastern Georgia this evening. Earlier in the evening, there were a few reports of sustained winds of 34-36 kt along portions of the Georgia coast, which supported the 40-kt intensity on the intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Although there have not been reports that high in the past hour or two, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt as the strongest winds are likely occuring in bands offshore. The initial motion estimate is 050/5 kt. The steering currents are forecast to weaken further over the next couple of days, and a slow eastward motion should begin on Tuesday when Debby is near the Georgia coast. An even slower northward motion is expected on Wednesday, which should bring the center toward the coast of South Carolina Wednesday night or Thursday. Toward the end of the week, most of the track guidance suggests that Debby may begin to move a little faster toward the north in southerly flow between a building ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Although there is still low confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, there is high confidence that Debby will be meandering near the southeastern U.S. coast for the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model (HCCA) through 72 hours and lies between that model and the simple multi-model consensus (TVCA) at the longer range. Debby is likely to weaken a little more while it moves over land through early Tuesday. After that, the center is forecast to move offshore, which should allow for some gradual re-intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and shows only modest strengthening before the center moves back onshore. Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large rainfall amounts are expected over portions of the Southeastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts for portions of central and northern Florida and across portions of central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. 2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 31.1N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/1200Z 31.6N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 33.8N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 36.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/0000Z 40.2N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
