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| #1192344 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 06.Aug.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...CENTER OF DEBBY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 81.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected today, followed by a turn to the north at a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and then off the Georgia coast later today and on Wednesday, and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible today. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby is off the southeastern U.S. coast. Recent satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km) east of the center. A weather station on Tybee Island, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A station on Folly Island, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic coast through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Wednesday. Across portions of central and northeast North Carolina, 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portions of the Central Florida Peninsula which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that area. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina tonight through today. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
