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New NHC Advisory with Milton at 180 MPH 905mb. Recon heading back in and could get even stronger still. Tampa may get 10-15' of surge on current forecast track. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
41.7N 38.4W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Ne at 29 mph
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17.4N 42.1W
Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 988mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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21.7N 91.3W
Wind: 175MPH
Pres: 911mb
Moving:
E at 9 mph
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#1192424 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 06.Aug.2024)
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface synoptic data, satellite imagery, and WSR-88D radar
observations indicate that the center of the cyclone is near
the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border.
As a result of its interaction with land, Debby's intensity has
decreased to near 35 kt. Most of the deep convection is occurring
in bands well to the east and northeast of the center as drier air
has been impinging on the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.

Debby has been gradually turning to the right and slowing down,
with a current motion estimate of around 060/5 kt. The cyclone is
situated in an area of weak steering currents within the subtropical
ridge. The track guidance shows a slow, generally eastward motion
during the next day or so, bringing the center out over the South
Carolina coastal waters. By late tomorrow and early Thursday, the
global models predict a strengthening mid-level ridge to the east of
Debby. This evolution should cause the system to turn northward
and north-northwestward and move back over the coastline in 36 to
48 hours. Thereafter, Debby is expected to move northeastward near
the northeast U.S. coast at an increasing forward speed, ahead of a
mid-tropospheric trough moving into the Ohio Valley region. The
official forecast is a blend of the latest model consensus
predictions.

Although the center of Debby is forecast to be over water later
today, the lack of an inner core should allow only slow
re-strengthening for the next day or so. Since the system is not
expected to move far enough offshore to interact significantly with
the Gulf Stream, this should limit the amount of oceanic heat
content available to the storm. The official intensity forecast
is near or slightly above the latest statistical/dynamical DSHIPS
and LGEM guidance.


Key Messages:

1.Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina
through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.
Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding impacts from northern
North Carolina through portions of Mid-Atlantic States and southern
New England through Sunday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia
to North Carolina through Thursday. Storm surge and tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect for portions of these areas.
Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 31.9N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 32.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 33.2N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 34.2N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 35.7N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 40.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1200Z 45.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch