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New NHC Advisory with Milton at 180 MPH 905mb. Recon heading back in and could get even stronger still. Tampa may get 10-15' of surge on current forecast track. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
41.7N 38.4W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Ne at 29 mph
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17.4N 42.1W
Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 988mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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21.7N 91.3W
Wind: 175MPH
Pres: 911mb
Moving:
E at 9 mph
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#1192488 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 06.Aug.2024)
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface, satellite, and radar data show that Debby continues to
linger near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South
Carolina border. The cyclone lacks strong convection near its
center and the tropical-storm-force winds are mainly occurring in
some bands well to the northeast and east of the center. This was
also shown by an earlier ASCAT pass. The central pressure
remains essentially unchanged, and the intensity is kept at 35
kt for this advisory.

Debby remains trapped in a zone of weak steering currents within
the subtropical ridge, and the current motion estimate is a very
slow 070/3 kt. The track guidance shows a generally eastward
motion for the next day or so, taking the center temporarily
offshore. In 24-36 hours, a building mid-level ridge should cause
the system to turn northward and move back inland early Thursday.
After that, Debby is likely to accelerate northeastward over the
eastern and northeastern U.S. ahead of an approaching mid-level
trough. The official track forecast has been adjusted toward the
latest consensus model guidance, and is somewhat to the left and
faster than the previous one.

Assuming that Debby moves back over water tonight and Wednesday,
some re-strengthening is anticipated. However since the cyclone
lacks an inner core and is not likely to move far enough east to
interact with the high oceanic heat content of the Gulf Stream,
re-intensification is likely to be limited. The official intensity
forecast is at the high end of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South
Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable
flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina,
western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of
Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and
northern New England through Saturday.

2 Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina
through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 32.1N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch