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New NHC Advisory with Milton at 180 MPH 905mb. Recon heading back in and could get even stronger still. Tampa may get 10-15' of surge on current forecast track. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
41.7N 38.4W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Ne at 29 mph
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17.4N 42.1W
Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 988mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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21.7N 91.3W
Wind: 175MPH
Pres: 911mb
Moving:
E at 9 mph
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#1192824 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 08.Aug.2024)
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over northern South Carolina. Surface observations and radar data
indicate that the strongest winds are likely occurring near the
coast and just offshore of southern North Carolina. The highest
sustained winds during the past couple of hours from reliable
surface observation sites are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Based
on the decreasing observed wind speeds, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. By far, the most significant
threat with Debby continues to be flash flooding from heavy
rainfall.

Debby is starting to accelerate toward the north-northwest, with the
current motion estimated at 345/9-kt. A ridge that is currently
strengthening over the western Atlantic will cause Debby to
accelerate northward, moving across central North Carolina this
evening. Then, a deep-layer trough will approach the Great Lakes
region on Friday, which will cause Debby to accelerate northeastward
over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and
then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. There are only minor changes
to the track forecast, hedging toward the latest consensus models.

Debby should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and most
of the models indicate that the winds near the coast should decrease
a bit more later today. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by this afternoon or evening. Model phase space diagrams
show that Debby should complete transition to an extratropical
cyclone in about 24 to 30 h. The current satellite imagery shows
that Debby is already starting to interact with the jet stream,
which extends toward the east-northeast over the North Atlantic.
Debby is now expected to complete extratropical transition in about
24 h as the cyclone merges with a cold front while over the
mid-Atlantic states. Beyond Friday, models show a post-tropical
Debby becoming extremely elongated along the cold front, which will
eventually lead to dissipation. The new NHC forecast has Debby
dissipating Sunday morning, but that could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for several more hours in
the Tropical Storm Warning area along the coast of northeastern
South Carolina and portions of North Carolina.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely to continue along
portions of the North Carolina coastline for several more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 34.5N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi