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| #1193430 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 12.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 52.5W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches or warnings could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning late tonight or Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
