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| #1193431 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 12.Aug.2024) TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not well organized. However, these observations also suggest the possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt. The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning northwestward and northward into the break. While the model guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Based on the disturbance`s currently disorganized state and continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
