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#1193554 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 12.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 58.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.4N 62.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.7N 64.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 32.7N 64.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 59.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH