|
Show Selection: |
| #1193592 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 13.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 61.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. St. Barthelemy recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
