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| #1193654 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 13.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO STILL STRENGTHENING... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 63.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda. The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * Saba and Sint Eustatius * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Gustavia, St. Barthelemy. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica and across the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into tonight. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
