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#1193673 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 13.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 64.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG