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| #1193677 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 13.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 64.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * Saba and Sint Eustatius * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 64.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be near Bermuda by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by tonight to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at St. Martin. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into tonight. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will then reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
