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#1193712 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 13.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 65.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART