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| #1193714 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 13.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
