|
Show Selection: |
| #1193753 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 14.Aug.2024) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 Ernesto continues to gradually become better organized on satellite imagery and WSR 88-D radar data. Very intense convection has developed near the center of the storm as well as in a strong band to the south across Puerto Rico. Earlier Culebra reported sustained winds of 59 kt and that was the basis for the 60 kt estimate at 6Z. While it is possible Ernesto is already a hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade, so 60 kt remains the initial intensity. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to be in the system later this morning. The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt. Ernesto is expected to turn north-northwestward later today and then move to the north or north-northeast for the next several days while it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge and interacts with a mid-latitude trough. There are no notable changes to the NHC track forecast, with Ernesto forecast to stay offshore of the CONUS and make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday. Radar data still suggests that Ernesto isn`t fully vertically aligned, with multiple attempts at eye formation failing, probably due to dry air intrusions. The large-scale conditions still appear to be conducive for strengthening as the shear remains fairly low and any residual dry air gradually mixes out of the core. The bulk of the intensity guidance still shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the western Atlantic in a couple of days, and the global models also depict a large and powerful hurricane. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains near the model consensus. It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells toward the land area across the western Atlantic. Even if Ernesto stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later this week. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques during the next several hours. 2. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 19.5N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
