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| #1193791 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 14.Aug.2024) TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 200SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 67.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N 68.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N 69.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 66.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N 65.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N 61.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 67.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG |
