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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1193831 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 14.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N 64.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.4N 58.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG